As fall deepened in 2025, the U.S. faced an unexpected and aggressive resurgence of USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed 62 outbreaks across 17 states in October alone—6.6 million birds culled, most of them in Wisconsin and Minnesota. This isn’t just another seasonal spike. It’s a geographic reversal: for the first time in memory, the heartland—not the coasts—is ground zero. And with millions of migratory birds still flying south along the Mississippi Flyway, experts warn the worst may be yet to come.
Why the Midwest Is Now the Epicenter
Traditionally, avian flu outbreaks begin on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts as waterfowl arrive from the Arctic. But this year, the virus exploded in the Upper Midwest before October even ended. Why? The birds migrating from Canada—especially sparrows and European starlings—are carrying the H5N1 strain without showing symptoms. And they’re landing in places where backyard flocks and commercial farms are densely packed, not isolated.
“It’s happening pretty fast and doesn’t seem to be slowing down,” said Angela Rasmussen, virologist at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization at the University of Saskatchewan. “I’m really very unclear about what the U.S.’s approach is going to be.”
The shift isn’t random. The Mississippi Flyway funnels birds through five states—Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Iowa—where wetlands, feedlots, and poultry farms create perfect transmission zones. And unlike last year, when outbreaks stalled in summer, this season’s surge began in September. Farmers didn’t see it coming.
The Human and Economic Toll
Since February 8, 2022, USDA data shows nearly 175 million birds have died or been culled across all 50 states and Puerto Rico. That’s more than the entire U.S. poultry population in 2015. But the real shock is in the numbers from 2025 alone: over 2.2 million turkeys lost since September 1—five times the toll from the same period in 2024. Another 5.7 million egg-laying hens have been wiped out.
The consequences are in your grocery cart. Egg prices hit their highest level in 45 years after production dropped from 7.5 billion to 6.6 billion eggs between January and February 2025. In March, Brooke Rollins, USDA Secretary scrambled to secure imports: 222 million eggs from Brazil, 111 million from Türkiye, and 16.7 million from Poland—all landing mostly in New York City. Turkey supplies for Thanksgiving? Unpredictable. Prices? Rising.
Bernt Nelson, economist cited by Think Global Health, noted that the losses in turkey production alone could push holiday meal costs up 12% compared to last year. “We’re not just talking about farmers losing income,” he said. “We’re talking about families changing their holiday traditions.”
A Government Response on Life Support
Despite the $1 billion the Biden administration allocated in February 2025 for biosecurity audits and farm relief, the federal response has been crippled. Staff cuts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and USDA left labs understaffed. A government shutdown in October suspended weekly calls between animal health labs—the very coordination that detects outbreaks early.
Worse, the CDC shifted from weekly to monthly H5N1 reporting in July 2025, citing declining cases. But as Jada Thompson, associate professor at the University of Arkansas’s Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, pointed out: “That decline happened because the virus went quiet during summer. Fall migration? That’s when it wakes up.”
And the vaccine gap? It’s widening. Farmers are waiting for shots that haven’t arrived. The administration canceled funding for an mRNA human vaccine in summer. Animal vaccines? Too slow. Too scarce. “They’re playing catch-up with a virus that’s already two steps ahead,” said one anonymous USDA inspector who spoke off-record.
What’s Next? The Wild Cards
Small birds—sparrows, starlings—are now the biggest threat. For years, biosecurity focused on ducks and geese. But these tiny, fast-moving birds don’t stay in wetlands. They fly into barns, scratch through feed bins, and land on rooftops. They’re not being tested. Not being tracked. And they’re spreading the virus silently.
Then there’s the mammal angle. H5N1 has now been found in dairy cows, cats, and even a few dogs. The CDC confirms 71 human cases since 2024—41 from dairy exposure, 24 from poultry work. Louisiana reported the first U.S. death from H5 bird flu in February 2025. The CDC says the risk to the public remains low. But low doesn’t mean zero.
The USDA’s Turkeys Raised report—due September 26, 2025—will offer the first full picture of 2025’s turkey harvest. But by then, the virus may have moved into Missouri, Illinois, and beyond. The fall migration won’t stop. Neither will the virus.
What This Means for You
If you buy eggs, you’ve already felt the pinch. If you eat turkey, you’ll feel it more this November. But beyond food prices, there’s a deeper question: Is the U.S. prepared for the next pandemic? The virus has jumped from birds to cows to humans. It’s evolving. And the systems meant to catch it? They’re running on fumes.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many birds have been affected by H5N1 since 2022?
Since February 8, 2022, nearly 175 million birds have been killed or culled across all 50 states and Puerto Rico due to H5N1 outbreaks. This includes 18 million commercial turkeys and 5.7 million egg-laying hens in 2025 alone, making it the deadliest avian flu outbreak in U.S. history.
Why is the Mississippi Flyway so critical right now?
The Mississippi Flyway is a major migration corridor for birds traveling from Canada to the Gulf Coast. This year, H5N1 surged early in states along this route—Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa—because migratory birds, including small species like starlings, are spreading the virus without showing symptoms. This has shifted the outbreak epicenter from coastal areas to the Midwest.
What’s the risk to humans from H5N1?
The CDC reports 71 confirmed or probable human cases since 2024, mostly among farmworkers and dairy handlers. One death occurred in Louisiana in February 2025. While human-to-human transmission hasn’t been documented, the virus’s ability to infect mammals—including cats and cows—raises concerns about potential mutations that could enable wider spread.
Why aren’t more vaccines being used on farms?
Farmers are waiting for vaccines that haven’t been widely distributed. The U.S. government canceled funding for a human mRNA vaccine in summer 2025, and animal vaccine production has lagged due to regulatory delays and supply chain issues. Biosecurity measures remain the primary defense—but many small farms lack resources to implement them effectively.
How has the government’s response changed since 2024?
In 2024, the CDC issued weekly H5N1 updates and had active emergency coordination. By mid-2025, funding was cut, staff reduced, and reporting shifted to monthly. The October 2025 government shutdown halted lab communications. Experts say this delay in response allowed the virus to spread unchecked during the critical early fall migration window.
Will egg and turkey prices go down soon?
Unlikely. With 2.2 million turkeys lost in 2025 and egg-laying flocks still recovering, supply won’t rebound before Thanksgiving. Imports from Brazil and Türkiye have helped, but they can’t fully replace domestic production. Experts predict prices will remain elevated through early 2026 unless new outbreaks are contained and vaccination programs accelerate.